Monday Market Musings: Canadian Mortgage Outlook Amidst Global Shifts

Jamie Ushko • September 9, 2024

As we kick off another week, the financial markets seem deceptively calm. But with key economic data on the horizon, Canadian homeowners and prospective buyers should stay alert. Let's dive into the numbers and see how they might impact your mortgage.



Canada: Charting Its Own Course?

The Bank of Canada has cut rates three times since June 6th, 2024. Interestingly, our dollar has held steady:

  • Current CAD: 0.73681 USD
  • June 5th (pre-cuts): 0.7304 USD

Source: Trading Economics


This resilience suggests the BoC might continue its independent path, potentially leading to more rate cuts that could benefit variable-rate mortgage holders.


U.S. Inflation: A Key Indicator

Wednesday brings crucial U.S. inflation data:

  • Previous: 2.9%
  • Expected: 2.6%

Why it matters: Lower U.S. inflation could influence our mortgage rates. A positive report might signal continued downward pressure on Canadian rates.


Historical Perspective: Market Dips and Rate Cuts

Let's look at past crises and their impact:

  1. Dot Com Bubble (2000-2002):
  • US500 loss: 40%
  • Fed rate drop: 4.75%

  2. Financial Crisis (2007-2009):

  • US500 loss: 52%
  • Fed rate drop: 2.50%

  3. Pandemic (2020):

  • US500 loss: 35%
  • Fed rate drop: 1.50%

  4. Today (Aug 30 - Sept 6, 2024):

  • US500 loss: 4.35%
  • Fed rate change: None yet

Data source: Trading Economics


What this means for Canadian mortgages: If the U.S. holds steady due to minimal market pressure, it might slow the pace of rate cuts in Canada, potentially stabilizing mortgage rates in the short term.


Looking Ahead

Market predictions suggest a 67.5% chance of a 0.25% U.S. rate cut on September 18th, with a 32.5% chance of a 0.50% cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has even hinted at supporting a rate cut:

"Considering the achieved and continuing progress on inflation and moderation in the labor market, I believe the time has come to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at our upcoming meeting," Waller stated.

Source: CNBC


What This Means for Canadian Homeowners and Buyers

  1. Variable-rate mortgage holders might see more relief if the rate-cutting trend continues.
  2. Those looking to buy should stay ready – we could see more favorable rates in the coming months.
  3. Fixed-rate mortgage holders should consider talking to a mortgage professional about potential refinancing opportunities.


Remember, while current trends look positive for borrowers, it's crucial to stay informed and consider your unique financial situation. As always, I'm here to help you navigate these changes and find the best mortgage solution for your needs.


Stay tuned for updates as we navigate this eventful week in the financial markets!

Jamie Ushko

Mortgage Broker

Down Payment Options for Canadian Homebuyers

By Jamie Ushko • June 3, 2026
For most Canadians, the down payment is the biggest hurdle to homeownership. A down payment is the initial amount you contribute toward your property purchase, while the lender covers the rest through a mortgage. By law, Canadian lenders can only finance up to 95% of a property’s value, which means you’ll need at least 5% down to qualify. If you’re putting down less than 20%, your mortgage must be insured through one of Canada’s three default insurance providers— CMHC, Sagen (formerly Genworth), or Canada Guaranty . This insurance comes at a cost, but it can be rolled into your mortgage amount. The less you put down, the higher the premium. Since saving a down payment can feel overwhelming, it helps to know the different sources you can draw from. Here are the most common options available to Canadian homebuyers: 1. Savings & Personal Resources The most straightforward source is your own savings. Lenders will ask to see a 90-day history of the funds in your account. Any large deposits outside of regular payroll must be explained with documentation—such as the sale of a vehicle or a transfer from an investment account. This requirement isn’t just red tape; it’s part of Canada’s anti-money laundering rules. 2. Proceeds from the Sale of a Property If you’ve recently sold another home, you can use the proceeds as a down payment on your new purchase. Proof of the sale—such as the final statement of adjustments from your lawyer—will be required. 3. RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) First-time buyers can withdraw up to $35,000 each (or $70,000 as a couple) from their RRSPs to put toward a down payment under the federal Home Buyers’ Plan . The funds are withdrawn tax-free, but they must be repaid over a 15-year period. This is a popular option for buyers who have been steadily contributing to their retirement savings. 4. Gifted Down Payment With today’s housing prices, many buyers turn to family for help. A parent or immediate family member can provide a gift that makes up part—or even all—of the required down payment. The lender will require a signed gift letter confirming that the money is a true gift (with no repayment expected) and proof that the funds have been deposited into your account. 5. Borrowed Down Payment In some cases, you may be able to borrow your down payment. This option is usually available only if you have strong credit and sufficient income. The payments on the borrowed funds are factored into your debt service ratios, so affordability is key. Lenders typically use 3% of the outstanding balance when calculating the additional payment. The Bottom Line A down payment doesn’t have to come from just one source—it can be a combination of savings, gifted funds, RRSPs, or other resources. What matters most is being able to show where the money came from and that it meets lender requirements. If you’d like to explore your options or learn how much you might qualify for, it’s never too early to start the conversation. Connect with us today—we’d be happy to help you create a plan and take the first steps toward homeownership.

Stress-Testing Your Mortgage Affordability: Why It Matters

By Jamie Ushko • May 27, 2026
Buying a home is one of the biggest financial commitments you’ll ever make. That’s why lenders want to be sure you can handle your mortgage payments—not just today, but also if interest rates rise in the future. This is where the mortgage stress test comes in. Many Canadians hear the term but aren’t entirely sure what it means or how it affects them. Let’s break it down in plain language. What Is the Mortgage Stress Test? The stress test is a rule introduced by the federal government that requires all mortgage applicants to qualify at a higher rate than the one they’ll actually pay. Currently, you must qualify at the greater of your contract rate + 2% or the benchmark qualifying rate (set by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions). For example: If your lender offers you a 5-year fixed mortgage at 5.25%, you must show you could still afford the payments at 7.25% . Even if rates don’t rise that high, the stress test ensures you won’t be overextended if they do. Why Does It Matter? The stress test protects both borrowers and lenders by: Preventing over-borrowing : It ensures you don’t take on more debt than you can realistically handle. Preparing for rate hikes : With interest rates fluctuating, it’s a safeguard against sudden increases. Strengthening financial stability : It lowers the risk of defaults, protecting the housing market as a whole. While it can sometimes feel like a barrier—reducing the amount you qualify for—it’s ultimately designed to keep you from becoming “house poor.” How Does It Impact Buyers? The stress test can significantly affect your homebuying budget. For example, without it, you might qualify for a $600,000 mortgage, but with the stress test applied, you may only qualify for $500,000. That doesn’t mean your dream of homeownership is out of reach—it just means you may need to adjust expectations or explore other strategies, such as: Increasing your down payment Paying down existing debts Considering alternative lenders who may have different qualification standards Why Work With a Mortgage Professional? Every lender applies the stress test, but not every lender views your application the same way. An independent mortgage professional can: Shop multiple lenders to find the best fit Run affordability scenarios at different rates Help you understand how much house you can truly afford—without stretching your finances too thin The Bottom Line The mortgage stress test isn’t meant to stop you from buying a home—it’s there to protect you from financial strain down the road. By understanding how it works and planning ahead, you can make smarter choices and buy with confidence. If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, refinancing, or simply want to know how the stress test affects your options, connect with us today. We’ll help you stress-test your budget and find the mortgage solution that works best for you.