Monday Market Musings: Canadian Mortgage Outlook Amidst Global Shifts

Jamie Ushko • September 9, 2024

As we kick off another week, the financial markets seem deceptively calm. But with key economic data on the horizon, Canadian homeowners and prospective buyers should stay alert. Let's dive into the numbers and see how they might impact your mortgage.



Canada: Charting Its Own Course?

The Bank of Canada has cut rates three times since June 6th, 2024. Interestingly, our dollar has held steady:

  • Current CAD: 0.73681 USD
  • June 5th (pre-cuts): 0.7304 USD

Source: Trading Economics


This resilience suggests the BoC might continue its independent path, potentially leading to more rate cuts that could benefit variable-rate mortgage holders.


U.S. Inflation: A Key Indicator

Wednesday brings crucial U.S. inflation data:

  • Previous: 2.9%
  • Expected: 2.6%

Why it matters: Lower U.S. inflation could influence our mortgage rates. A positive report might signal continued downward pressure on Canadian rates.


Historical Perspective: Market Dips and Rate Cuts

Let's look at past crises and their impact:

  1. Dot Com Bubble (2000-2002):
  • US500 loss: 40%
  • Fed rate drop: 4.75%

  2. Financial Crisis (2007-2009):

  • US500 loss: 52%
  • Fed rate drop: 2.50%

  3. Pandemic (2020):

  • US500 loss: 35%
  • Fed rate drop: 1.50%

  4. Today (Aug 30 - Sept 6, 2024):

  • US500 loss: 4.35%
  • Fed rate change: None yet

Data source: Trading Economics


What this means for Canadian mortgages: If the U.S. holds steady due to minimal market pressure, it might slow the pace of rate cuts in Canada, potentially stabilizing mortgage rates in the short term.


Looking Ahead

Market predictions suggest a 67.5% chance of a 0.25% U.S. rate cut on September 18th, with a 32.5% chance of a 0.50% cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has even hinted at supporting a rate cut:

"Considering the achieved and continuing progress on inflation and moderation in the labor market, I believe the time has come to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at our upcoming meeting," Waller stated.

Source: CNBC


What This Means for Canadian Homeowners and Buyers

  1. Variable-rate mortgage holders might see more relief if the rate-cutting trend continues.
  2. Those looking to buy should stay ready – we could see more favorable rates in the coming months.
  3. Fixed-rate mortgage holders should consider talking to a mortgage professional about potential refinancing opportunities.


Remember, while current trends look positive for borrowers, it's crucial to stay informed and consider your unique financial situation. As always, I'm here to help you navigate these changes and find the best mortgage solution for your needs.


Stay tuned for updates as we navigate this eventful week in the financial markets!

Jamie Ushko

Mortgage Broker

By Jamie Ushko September 2, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. While Canada's economic recovery is broadening, a new layer of uncertainty has entered the picture. Here is what happened and what it means for your mortgage.
By Jamie Ushko August 26, 2026
You’ve outgrown your current home. It no longer fits your life, so moving makes sense. And you’re not interested in juggling two properties. Selling first and buying something new feels like the right move. Ideally, you want possession of the new home before leaving the old one. That overlap makes moving easier, reduces stress, and gives you time to paint, renovate, or settle in before the boxes arrive. But there’s a common challenge. What if the down payment for your next home is tied up in the equity of the one you’re selling? That’s where bridge financing comes in. How bridge financing works Bridge financing temporarily unlocks equity from your current home once it has a firm sale . It bridges the gap between selling your existing property and purchasing your next one, allowing you to use that equity toward your down payment. What about competitive markets? In a hot market, a strong offer often means a larger deposit . If you don’t have that cash sitting in your account, but you do have equity, a deposit loan can help you compete with confidence. The non-negotiable requirement To qualify for bridge financing or a deposit loan, your current home must have a firm, unconditional sale . No firm sale = no bridge or deposit loan. Lenders need certainty to calculate available equity and manage risk. Bottom line A firm sale is the key that unlocks bridge financing and deposit loans. If you’re planning a move and want to understand how these options could work for you, let’s talk. I’m always happy to walk you through your options and help you plan your next step with confidence.