Behind the Scenes: Macklem's Moves and the Future of Mortgage Rates

Jamie Ushko • December 19, 2023

In the dynamic world of Canadian monetary policy, Bank of Canada Chief Tiff Macklem has recently taken center stage. Just days ago, it seemed "premature" for rate adjustments, but now Macklem suggests they might be on the horizon in 2024. As the bond market interprets his moves, borrowers are left wondering about the future of mortgage rates.

The Economic Shuffle

Macklem's dance with the idea of rate adjustments is not without its complexities. The bond market remains skeptical, accustomed to the cryptic nature of central bankers grappling with inflation. Macklem, aware of Canada's economic slowdown, is contemplating the timing of rate adjustments, likely in 2024. The bond market, sensing this, is already making its own predictions, not waiting for official guidance from the Bank of Canada.

Beyond the Summit: What Comes Next for Mortgage Rates


For mortgage borrowers on the edge of their seats, anticipating what comes after the rate peak is a common sentiment. Predicting yields in this rollercoaster is no easy task, but historical market tendencies provide some guidance.


Typically, after a rate peak:


  1. Yields sink as the market senses the peak.
  2. The drop accelerates with ongoing data confirming the peak.
  3. Yields fall across the board, often months before the official rate adjustment.
  4. Longer-term yields initially drop more than short-term yields.
  5. Short-term rates catch up once rate adjustments become imminent.


If history holds true, rates may continue a jagged descent until the rate-adjustment cycle kicks in, with potential indicators on the horizon.

Economic Signals and Mortgage Rates

Borrowers should keep an eye on key indicators signaling an imminent easing cycle, such as inflation in the 2s, unemployment in the 6s, dovish BoC communications, and high-rate adjustment probabilities in upcoming meetings. Macklem hints that he'd like to see sustained inflation deceleration for three or four months before the first adjustment, potentially placing it in March or April of 2024.

Bank Credit Spreads and Mortgage Magic

Despite whispers of a recession, bank credit spreads remain cool, signaling stability. This is good news for mortgage rates, as shrinking credit spreads often lead to more affordable variable rates. If all aligns well, we might see more discounts on uninsured floating-rate mortgages in the coming year.

Fixed Rates and the High-Five Club

In the uninsured fixed-rate market, rates are dipping into the 5% range for various terms. Big banks are stepping up their game, offering competitive rates. With room for rates to fall further, uninsured fixed rates may see a decline in January, pending economic data.

Navigating the Value Zone

Long-term fixed rates may feel restrictive in the current cycle. With market-implied rates suggesting potential adjustments, variable rates may outperform 3-, 4-, and 5-year fixed terms. For those seeking a financial safety net, hybrid mortgages could be a solution, blending fixed and variable components.

Insights into Mortgage Trends and Regulatory Shifts

Amid regulatory changes, borrowers face evolving rules. The mortgage world introduces hybrid options like Scotia's STEP and TD's FlexLine for those seeking a balance between fixed and variable rates.

Stay tuned for updates as the mortgage landscape evolves.

Unlocking Mortgage Solutions with Mortgages by Jamie – Your Partner in Financial Solutions.

Jamie Ushko

Mortgage Broker

Collateral vs. Standard Mortgage: Pros and Cons Explained

By Jamie Ushko • January 14, 2026
Mortgage Registration 101: What You Need to Know About Standard vs. Collateral Charges When you’re setting up a mortgage, it’s easy to focus on the rate and monthly payment—but what about how your mortgage is registered? Most borrowers don’t realize this, but there are two common ways your lender can register your mortgage: as a standard charge or a collateral charge . And that choice can affect your flexibility, future borrowing power, and even your ability to switch lenders. Let’s break down what each option means—without the legal jargon. What Is a Standard Charge Mortgage? Think of this as the “traditional” mortgage. With a standard charge, your lender registers exactly what you’ve borrowed on the property title. Nothing more. Nothing hidden. Just the principal amount of your mortgage. Here’s why that matters: When your mortgage term is up, you can usually switch to another lender easily —often without legal fees, as long as your terms stay the same. If you want to borrow more money down the line (for example, for renovations or debt consolidation), you’ll need to requalify and break your current mortgage , which can come with penalties and legal costs. It’s straightforward, transparent, and offers more freedom to shop around at renewal time. What Is a Collateral Charge Mortgage? This is a more flexible—but also more complex—type of mortgage registration. Instead of registering just the amount you borrow, a collateral charge mortgage registers for a higher amount , often up to 100%–125% of your home’s value . Why? To allow you to borrow additional funds in the future without redoing your mortgage. Here’s the upside: If your home’s value goes up or you need access to funds, a collateral charge mortgage may let you re-borrow more easily (if you qualify). It can bundle other credit products—like a line of credit or personal loan—into one master agreement. But there are trade-offs: You can’t switch lenders at renewal without hiring a lawyer and paying legal fees to discharge the mortgage. It may limit your ability to get a second mortgage with another lender because the original lender is registered for a higher amount than you actually owe. Which One Should You Choose? The answer depends on what matters more to you: flexibility in future borrowing , or freedom to shop around for better rates at renewal. Why Talk to a Mortgage Broker? This kind of decision shouldn’t be made by default—or by what a single lender offers. An independent mortgage professional can help you: Understand how your mortgage is registered (most people never ask!) Compare lenders that offer both options Make sure your mortgage aligns with your future goals—not just today’s needs We look at your full financial picture and explain the fine print so you can move forward with confidence—not surprises. Have questions? Let’s talk. Whether you’re renewing, refinancing, or buying for the first time, I’m here to help you make smart, informed choices about your mortgage. No pressure—just answers.

First-Time Buyer? Here’s How to Tell If You’re Ready

By Jamie Ushko • January 7, 2026
Ready to Buy Your First Home? Here’s How to Know for Sure Buying your first home is exciting—but it’s also a major financial decision. So how can you tell if you’re truly ready to take that leap into homeownership? Whether you’re confident or still unsure, these four signs are solid indicators that you’re on the right path: 1. You’ve Got Your Down Payment and Closing Costs in Place To purchase a home in Canada, you’ll need at least 5% of the purchase price as a down payment. In addition, plan for around 1.5% to 2% of the home’s value to cover closing costs like legal fees, insurance, and adjustments. If you’ve managed to save this on your own, that’s a great sign of financial discipline. If you're receiving help from a family member through a gifted down payment , that works too—as long as the paperwork is in order. Either way, having these funds ready shows you’re prepared for the upfront costs of homeownership. 2. Your Credit Profile Tells a Good Story Lenders want to know how you manage debt. Before they approve you for a mortgage, they’ll review your credit history. What they typically like to see: At least two active credit accounts (trade lines) , like a credit card or loan Each with a minimum limit of $2,000 Open and active for at least 2 years Even if your credit isn’t perfect, don’t panic. There may still be options, such as using a co-signer or working on a credit improvement plan with a mortgage expert. 3. Your Income Can Support Homeownership—Comfortably A steady income is essential, but not all income is treated equally. If you’re full-time and past probation , you’re in a strong position. If you’re self-employed, on contract, or rely on variable income like tips or commissions, you’ll generally need a two-year history to qualify. A general rule: housing costs (mortgage, taxes, utilities) should stay under 35% of your gross monthly income . That leaves plenty of room for other living expenses, savings, and—yes—some fun too. 4. You’ve Talked to a Mortgage Professional Let’s be real—there’s a lot of info out there about buying a home. Google searches and TikToks can only take you so far. If you're serious about buying, speaking with a mortgage professional is the most effective next step. Why? Because you'll: Get pre-approved (and know what price range you're working with) Understand your loan options and the qualification process Build a game plan that suits your timeline and financial goals The Bottom Line: Being “ready” to buy a home isn’t just about how much you want it—it’s about being financially prepared, credit-ready, and backed by expert advice. If you’re thinking about homeownership, let’s chat. I’d love to help you understand your options, crunch the numbers, and build a plan that gets you confidently across the finish line—keys in hand.