Behind the Scenes: Macklem's Moves and the Future of Mortgage Rates

Jamie Ushko • December 19, 2023

In the dynamic world of Canadian monetary policy, Bank of Canada Chief Tiff Macklem has recently taken center stage. Just days ago, it seemed "premature" for rate adjustments, but now Macklem suggests they might be on the horizon in 2024. As the bond market interprets his moves, borrowers are left wondering about the future of mortgage rates.

The Economic Shuffle

Macklem's dance with the idea of rate adjustments is not without its complexities. The bond market remains skeptical, accustomed to the cryptic nature of central bankers grappling with inflation. Macklem, aware of Canada's economic slowdown, is contemplating the timing of rate adjustments, likely in 2024. The bond market, sensing this, is already making its own predictions, not waiting for official guidance from the Bank of Canada.

Beyond the Summit: What Comes Next for Mortgage Rates


For mortgage borrowers on the edge of their seats, anticipating what comes after the rate peak is a common sentiment. Predicting yields in this rollercoaster is no easy task, but historical market tendencies provide some guidance.


Typically, after a rate peak:


  1. Yields sink as the market senses the peak.
  2. The drop accelerates with ongoing data confirming the peak.
  3. Yields fall across the board, often months before the official rate adjustment.
  4. Longer-term yields initially drop more than short-term yields.
  5. Short-term rates catch up once rate adjustments become imminent.


If history holds true, rates may continue a jagged descent until the rate-adjustment cycle kicks in, with potential indicators on the horizon.

Economic Signals and Mortgage Rates

Borrowers should keep an eye on key indicators signaling an imminent easing cycle, such as inflation in the 2s, unemployment in the 6s, dovish BoC communications, and high-rate adjustment probabilities in upcoming meetings. Macklem hints that he'd like to see sustained inflation deceleration for three or four months before the first adjustment, potentially placing it in March or April of 2024.

Bank Credit Spreads and Mortgage Magic

Despite whispers of a recession, bank credit spreads remain cool, signaling stability. This is good news for mortgage rates, as shrinking credit spreads often lead to more affordable variable rates. If all aligns well, we might see more discounts on uninsured floating-rate mortgages in the coming year.

Fixed Rates and the High-Five Club

In the uninsured fixed-rate market, rates are dipping into the 5% range for various terms. Big banks are stepping up their game, offering competitive rates. With room for rates to fall further, uninsured fixed rates may see a decline in January, pending economic data.

Navigating the Value Zone

Long-term fixed rates may feel restrictive in the current cycle. With market-implied rates suggesting potential adjustments, variable rates may outperform 3-, 4-, and 5-year fixed terms. For those seeking a financial safety net, hybrid mortgages could be a solution, blending fixed and variable components.

Insights into Mortgage Trends and Regulatory Shifts

Amid regulatory changes, borrowers face evolving rules. The mortgage world introduces hybrid options like Scotia's STEP and TD's FlexLine for those seeking a balance between fixed and variable rates.

Stay tuned for updates as the mortgage landscape evolves.

Unlocking Mortgage Solutions with Mortgages by Jamie – Your Partner in Financial Solutions.

Jamie Ushko

Mortgage Broker

Buying a Vacation Home? Here’s What You Need to Know

By Jamie Ushko • July 10, 2025
The idea of owning a vacation home—your own cozy escape from everyday life—is a dream many Canadians share. Whether it’s a lakeside cabin, a ski chalet, or a beachside bungalow, a second property can add lifestyle value, rental income, and long-term wealth. But before you jump into vacation home ownership, it’s important to think through the details—both financial and practical. Start With Your 5- and 10-Year Plan Before you get swept away by the perfect view or your dream destination, take a step back and ask yourself: Will you use it enough to justify the cost? Are there other financial goals that take priority right now? What’s the opportunity cost of tying up your money in a second home? Owning a vacation home can be incredibly rewarding, but it should fit comfortably within your long-term financial goals—not compete with them. Financing a Vacation Property: What to Consider If you don’t plan to pay cash, then financing your vacation home will be your next major step. Mortgage rules for second properties are more complex than those for your primary residence, so here’s what to think about: 1. Do You Have Enough for a Down Payment? Depending on the type of property and how you plan to use it, down payment requirements typically range from 5% to 20%+ . Factors like whether the property is winterized, the purchase price, and its location all come into play. 2. Can You Afford the Additional Debt? Lenders will calculate your Gross Debt Service (GDS) and Total Debt Service (TDS) ratios to assess whether you can take on a second mortgage. GDS: Should not exceed 39% of your income TDS: Should not exceed 44% If you’re not sure how to calculate these, that’s where I can help! 3. Is the Property Mortgage-Eligible? Remote or non-winterized properties, or those located outside of Canada, may not qualify for traditional mortgage financing. In these cases, we may need to look at creative lending solutions . 4. Owner-Occupied or Investment Property? Whether you’ll live in the home occasionally, rent it out, or use it strictly as an investment affects what type of financing you’ll need and what your tax implications might be. Location, Location… Logistics Choosing the right vacation property is more than just finding a beautiful setting. Consider: Current and future development in the area Available municipal services (sewer, water, road maintenance) Transportation access – how easy is it to get to your vacation home in all seasons? Resale value and long-term potential Seasonal access or weather challenges What Happens When You’re Not There? Unless you plan to live there full-time, you'll need to consider: Will you rent it out for extra income? Will you hire a property manager or rely on family/friends? What’s required to maintain valid home insurance while it’s vacant? Planning ahead will protect your investment and give you peace of mind while you’re away. Not Sure Where to Start? I’ve Got You Covered. Buying a vacation home is exciting—but it can also be complicated. As a mortgage broker, I can help you: Understand your financial readiness Calculate your GDS/TDS ratios Review down payment and lending requirements Explore creative solutions like second mortgages , reverse mortgages , or alternative lenders Whether you’re just starting to dream or ready to take action, let’s build a plan that gets you one step closer to your ideal getaway. Reach out today—it would be a pleasure to work with you.

Locking in a Variable Rate Mortgage

By Jamie Ushko • July 9, 2025
If you have a variable rate mortgage and recent economic news has you thinking about locking into a fixed rate, here’s what you can expect will happen. You can expect to pay a higher interest rate over the remainder of your term, while you could end up paying a significantly higher mortgage penalty should you need to break your mortgage before the end of your term. Now, each lender has a slightly different way that they handle the process of switching from a variable rate to a fixed rate. Still, it’s safe to say that regardless of which lender you’re with, you’ll end up paying more money in interest and potentially way more money down the line in mortgage penalties should you have to break your mortgage. Interest rates on fixed rate mortgages Fixed rate mortgages come with a higher interest rate than variable rate mortgages. If you’re a variable rate mortgage holder, this is one of the reasons you went variable in the first place; to secure the lower rate. The perception is that fixed rates are somewhat “safe” while variable rates are “uncertain.” And while it’s true that because the variable rate is tied to prime, it can increase (or decrease) within your term, there are controls in place to ensure that rates don’t take a roller coaster ride. The Bank of Canada has eight prescheduled rate announcements per year, where they rarely move more than 0.25% per announcement, making it impossible for your variable rate to double overnight. Penalties on fixed rate mortgages Each lender has a different way of calculating the cost to break a mortgage. However, generally speaking, breaking a variable rate mortgage will cost roughly three months of interest or approximately 0.5% of the total mortgage balance. While breaking a fixed rate mortgage could cost upwards of 4% of the total mortgage balance should you need to break it early and you’re required to pay an interest rate differential penalty. For example, on a $500k mortgage balance, the cost to break your variable rate would be roughly $2500, while the cost to break your fixed rate mortgage could be as high as $20,000, eight times more depending on the lender and how they calculate their interest rate differential penalty. The flexibility of a variable rate mortgage vs the cost of breaking a fixed rate mortgage is likely another reason you went with a variable rate in the first place. Breaking your mortgage contract Did you know that almost 60% of Canadians will break their current mortgage at an average of 38 months? And while you might have the best intention of staying with your existing mortgage for the remainder of your term, sometimes life happens, you need to make a change. Here’s is a list of potential reasons you might need to break your mortgage before the end of the term. Certainly worth reviewing before committing to a fixed rate mortgage. Sale of your property because of a job relocation. Purchase of a new home. Access equity from your home. Refinance your home to pay off consumer debt. Refinance your home to fund a new business. Because you got married, you combine assets and want to live together in a new property. Because you got divorced, you need to split up your assets and access the equity in your property Because you or someone close to you got sick Because you lost your job or because you got a new one You want to remove someone from the title. You want to pay off your mortgage before the maturity date. Essentially, locking your variable rate mortgage into a fixed rate is choosing to voluntarily pay more interest to the lender while giving up some of the flexibility should you need to break your mortgage. If you’d like to discuss this in greater detail, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through all your mortgage options and provide you with professional mortgage advice.