Behind the Scenes: Macklem's Moves and the Future of Mortgage Rates

Jamie Ushko • December 19, 2023

In the dynamic world of Canadian monetary policy, Bank of Canada Chief Tiff Macklem has recently taken center stage. Just days ago, it seemed "premature" for rate adjustments, but now Macklem suggests they might be on the horizon in 2024. As the bond market interprets his moves, borrowers are left wondering about the future of mortgage rates.

The Economic Shuffle

Macklem's dance with the idea of rate adjustments is not without its complexities. The bond market remains skeptical, accustomed to the cryptic nature of central bankers grappling with inflation. Macklem, aware of Canada's economic slowdown, is contemplating the timing of rate adjustments, likely in 2024. The bond market, sensing this, is already making its own predictions, not waiting for official guidance from the Bank of Canada.

Beyond the Summit: What Comes Next for Mortgage Rates


For mortgage borrowers on the edge of their seats, anticipating what comes after the rate peak is a common sentiment. Predicting yields in this rollercoaster is no easy task, but historical market tendencies provide some guidance.


Typically, after a rate peak:


  1. Yields sink as the market senses the peak.
  2. The drop accelerates with ongoing data confirming the peak.
  3. Yields fall across the board, often months before the official rate adjustment.
  4. Longer-term yields initially drop more than short-term yields.
  5. Short-term rates catch up once rate adjustments become imminent.


If history holds true, rates may continue a jagged descent until the rate-adjustment cycle kicks in, with potential indicators on the horizon.

Economic Signals and Mortgage Rates

Borrowers should keep an eye on key indicators signaling an imminent easing cycle, such as inflation in the 2s, unemployment in the 6s, dovish BoC communications, and high-rate adjustment probabilities in upcoming meetings. Macklem hints that he'd like to see sustained inflation deceleration for three or four months before the first adjustment, potentially placing it in March or April of 2024.

Bank Credit Spreads and Mortgage Magic

Despite whispers of a recession, bank credit spreads remain cool, signaling stability. This is good news for mortgage rates, as shrinking credit spreads often lead to more affordable variable rates. If all aligns well, we might see more discounts on uninsured floating-rate mortgages in the coming year.

Fixed Rates and the High-Five Club

In the uninsured fixed-rate market, rates are dipping into the 5% range for various terms. Big banks are stepping up their game, offering competitive rates. With room for rates to fall further, uninsured fixed rates may see a decline in January, pending economic data.

Navigating the Value Zone

Long-term fixed rates may feel restrictive in the current cycle. With market-implied rates suggesting potential adjustments, variable rates may outperform 3-, 4-, and 5-year fixed terms. For those seeking a financial safety net, hybrid mortgages could be a solution, blending fixed and variable components.

Insights into Mortgage Trends and Regulatory Shifts

Amid regulatory changes, borrowers face evolving rules. The mortgage world introduces hybrid options like Scotia's STEP and TD's FlexLine for those seeking a balance between fixed and variable rates.

Stay tuned for updates as the mortgage landscape evolves.

Unlocking Mortgage Solutions with Mortgages by Jamie – Your Partner in Financial Solutions.

Jamie Ushko

Mortgage Broker

Your Guide to Real Estate Investment in Canada

By Jamie Ushko • March 4, 2026
Your Guide to Real Estate Investment in Canada Real estate has long been one of the most popular ways Canadians build wealth. Whether you’re purchasing your first rental property or expanding an existing portfolio, understanding how real estate investment works in Canada—and how it’s financed—is key to making smart decisions. This guide walks through the fundamentals you need to know before getting started. Why Canadians Invest in Real Estate Real estate offers several potential benefits as an investment: Long-term appreciation of property value Rental income that can support cash flow Leverage , allowing you to invest using borrowed funds Tangible asset with intrinsic value Portfolio diversification beyond stocks and bonds When structured properly, real estate can support both income and long-term net worth growth. Types of Real Estate Investments Investors typically focus on one or more of the following: Long-term residential rentals Short-term or vacation rentals (subject to local regulations) Multi-unit residential properties Pre-construction or assignment purchases Value-add properties that require renovations Each type comes with different financing rules, risks, and return profiles. Down Payment Requirements for Investment Properties In Canada, investment properties generally require higher down payments than owner-occupied homes. Typical minimums include: 20% down payment for most rental properties Higher down payments may be required depending on: Number of units Property type Borrower profile Lender guidelines Down payment source, income stability, and credit history all play a role in approval. How Rental Income Is Used to Qualify Lenders don’t always count 100% of rental income. Depending on the lender and mortgage product, they may: Use a rental income offset , or Include a percentage of rental income toward qualification Understanding how income is treated can significantly impact borrowing power. Financing Options for Investors Investment financing can include: Conventional mortgages Insured or insurable options (in limited scenarios) Alternative or broker-only lenders Refinancing equity from existing properties Purchase plus improvements for value-add projects Access to multiple lenders is often crucial for investors as portfolios grow. Key Costs Investors Should Plan For Beyond the purchase price, investors should budget for: Property taxes Insurance Maintenance and repairs Vacancy periods Property management fees (if applicable) Legal and closing costs A realistic cash-flow analysis is essential before buying. Risk Considerations Like any investment, real estate carries risk. Key factors to consider include: Interest rate changes Market fluctuations Tenant turnover Regulatory changes Liquidity (real estate is not easily sold quickly) A strong financing structure can help manage many of these risks. The Role of a Mortgage Professional Investment mortgages are rarely “one-size-fits-all.” Lender policies vary widely, especially as you acquire more properties. Working with an independent mortgage professional allows you to: Compare multiple lender strategies Structure financing for long-term growth Preserve flexibility as your portfolio evolves Avoid costly mistakes early on Final Thoughts Real estate investment in Canada can be a powerful wealth-building tool when approached with a clear strategy and proper financing. Whether you’re exploring your first rental property or planning your next acquisition, understanding the numbers—and the lending landscape—matters. If you’d like to discuss investment property financing, run the numbers, or explore your options, feel free to connect. A well-planned mortgage strategy can make all the difference in long-term success.

Get Unbiased Advice: Work with an Independent Mortgage Pro July 8, 2025

By Jamie Ushko • February 25, 2026
Why Work With an Independent Mortgage Professional? If you’re in the market for a mortgage, here’s the most important thing to know: Working with an independent mortgage professional can save you money and provide better options than dealing directly with a single bank. If that’s all you read—great! But if you’d like to understand why that statement is true, keep reading. The Best Mortgage Isn’t Just About the Lowest Rate It’s easy to fall for slick marketing that promotes ultra-low mortgage rates. But the lowest rate doesn’t always mean the lowest cost . The best mortgage is the one that costs you the least amount of money over time —not just the one with the flashiest headline rate. Things like: Prepayment penalties Portability Flexibility to refinance Amortization structure Fixed vs. variable terms …can all affect the true cost of your mortgage. An independent mortgage professional looks beyond the rate. They’ll help you find a product that fits your unique financial situation , long-term goals, and lifestyle—so you’re not hit with expensive surprises down the road. Save Time (and Your Sanity) Applying for a mortgage can be complicated. Every lender has different rules, documents, and policies—and trying to navigate them all on your own can be time-consuming and frustrating. When you work with an independent mortgage professional: You fill out one application They shop that application across multiple lenders You get expert advice tailored to your needs This means less paperwork , less stress , and more confidence in your options. Get Unbiased Advice That Puts You First Bank specialists work for the bank. Their job is to sell you that bank’s mortgage products—whether or not it’s the best deal for you. Independent mortgage professionals work for you. They’re provincially licensed, and their job is to help you: Compare multiple lenders Understand the fine print Make informed, long-term financial decisions And the best part? Their services are typically free to you . Mortgage professionals are paid a standardized fee by the lender when a mortgage is placed—so you get expert guidance without any out-of-pocket cost. Access More Mortgage Options When you go to your bank, you’re limited to that bank’s mortgage products. When you go to an independent mortgage professional, you get access to: Major banks Credit unions Monoline lenders (who only offer mortgages) Alternative and private lenders (if needed) That’s far more choice , and a much better chance of finding a mortgage that truly fits your needs and goals. The Bottom Line If you want to: Save money over the life of your mortgage Save time by avoiding unnecessary back-and-forth Access more lenders and products Get honest, client-first advice …then working with an independent mortgage professional is one of the smartest decisions you can make. Let’s Make a Plan That Works for You If you're ready to talk about mortgage financing—or just want to explore your options—I'm here to help. Let's connect and put together a strategy that makes sense for your goals and your future. Reach out anytime. I’d be happy to help.