Behind the Scenes: Macklem's Moves and the Future of Mortgage Rates

Jamie Ushko • December 19, 2023

In the dynamic world of Canadian monetary policy, Bank of Canada Chief Tiff Macklem has recently taken center stage. Just days ago, it seemed "premature" for rate adjustments, but now Macklem suggests they might be on the horizon in 2024. As the bond market interprets his moves, borrowers are left wondering about the future of mortgage rates.

The Economic Shuffle

Macklem's dance with the idea of rate adjustments is not without its complexities. The bond market remains skeptical, accustomed to the cryptic nature of central bankers grappling with inflation. Macklem, aware of Canada's economic slowdown, is contemplating the timing of rate adjustments, likely in 2024. The bond market, sensing this, is already making its own predictions, not waiting for official guidance from the Bank of Canada.

Beyond the Summit: What Comes Next for Mortgage Rates


For mortgage borrowers on the edge of their seats, anticipating what comes after the rate peak is a common sentiment. Predicting yields in this rollercoaster is no easy task, but historical market tendencies provide some guidance.


Typically, after a rate peak:


  1. Yields sink as the market senses the peak.
  2. The drop accelerates with ongoing data confirming the peak.
  3. Yields fall across the board, often months before the official rate adjustment.
  4. Longer-term yields initially drop more than short-term yields.
  5. Short-term rates catch up once rate adjustments become imminent.


If history holds true, rates may continue a jagged descent until the rate-adjustment cycle kicks in, with potential indicators on the horizon.

Economic Signals and Mortgage Rates

Borrowers should keep an eye on key indicators signaling an imminent easing cycle, such as inflation in the 2s, unemployment in the 6s, dovish BoC communications, and high-rate adjustment probabilities in upcoming meetings. Macklem hints that he'd like to see sustained inflation deceleration for three or four months before the first adjustment, potentially placing it in March or April of 2024.

Bank Credit Spreads and Mortgage Magic

Despite whispers of a recession, bank credit spreads remain cool, signaling stability. This is good news for mortgage rates, as shrinking credit spreads often lead to more affordable variable rates. If all aligns well, we might see more discounts on uninsured floating-rate mortgages in the coming year.

Fixed Rates and the High-Five Club

In the uninsured fixed-rate market, rates are dipping into the 5% range for various terms. Big banks are stepping up their game, offering competitive rates. With room for rates to fall further, uninsured fixed rates may see a decline in January, pending economic data.

Navigating the Value Zone

Long-term fixed rates may feel restrictive in the current cycle. With market-implied rates suggesting potential adjustments, variable rates may outperform 3-, 4-, and 5-year fixed terms. For those seeking a financial safety net, hybrid mortgages could be a solution, blending fixed and variable components.

Insights into Mortgage Trends and Regulatory Shifts

Amid regulatory changes, borrowers face evolving rules. The mortgage world introduces hybrid options like Scotia's STEP and TD's FlexLine for those seeking a balance between fixed and variable rates.

Stay tuned for updates as the mortgage landscape evolves.

Unlocking Mortgage Solutions with Mortgages by Jamie – Your Partner in Financial Solutions.

Jamie Ushko

Mortgage Broker

Down Payment Options for Canadian Homebuyers

By Jamie Ushko • June 3, 2026
For most Canadians, the down payment is the biggest hurdle to homeownership. A down payment is the initial amount you contribute toward your property purchase, while the lender covers the rest through a mortgage. By law, Canadian lenders can only finance up to 95% of a property’s value, which means you’ll need at least 5% down to qualify. If you’re putting down less than 20%, your mortgage must be insured through one of Canada’s three default insurance providers— CMHC, Sagen (formerly Genworth), or Canada Guaranty . This insurance comes at a cost, but it can be rolled into your mortgage amount. The less you put down, the higher the premium. Since saving a down payment can feel overwhelming, it helps to know the different sources you can draw from. Here are the most common options available to Canadian homebuyers: 1. Savings & Personal Resources The most straightforward source is your own savings. Lenders will ask to see a 90-day history of the funds in your account. Any large deposits outside of regular payroll must be explained with documentation—such as the sale of a vehicle or a transfer from an investment account. This requirement isn’t just red tape; it’s part of Canada’s anti-money laundering rules. 2. Proceeds from the Sale of a Property If you’ve recently sold another home, you can use the proceeds as a down payment on your new purchase. Proof of the sale—such as the final statement of adjustments from your lawyer—will be required. 3. RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) First-time buyers can withdraw up to $35,000 each (or $70,000 as a couple) from their RRSPs to put toward a down payment under the federal Home Buyers’ Plan . The funds are withdrawn tax-free, but they must be repaid over a 15-year period. This is a popular option for buyers who have been steadily contributing to their retirement savings. 4. Gifted Down Payment With today’s housing prices, many buyers turn to family for help. A parent or immediate family member can provide a gift that makes up part—or even all—of the required down payment. The lender will require a signed gift letter confirming that the money is a true gift (with no repayment expected) and proof that the funds have been deposited into your account. 5. Borrowed Down Payment In some cases, you may be able to borrow your down payment. This option is usually available only if you have strong credit and sufficient income. The payments on the borrowed funds are factored into your debt service ratios, so affordability is key. Lenders typically use 3% of the outstanding balance when calculating the additional payment. The Bottom Line A down payment doesn’t have to come from just one source—it can be a combination of savings, gifted funds, RRSPs, or other resources. What matters most is being able to show where the money came from and that it meets lender requirements. If you’d like to explore your options or learn how much you might qualify for, it’s never too early to start the conversation. Connect with us today—we’d be happy to help you create a plan and take the first steps toward homeownership.

Stress-Testing Your Mortgage Affordability: Why It Matters

By Jamie Ushko • May 27, 2026
Buying a home is one of the biggest financial commitments you’ll ever make. That’s why lenders want to be sure you can handle your mortgage payments—not just today, but also if interest rates rise in the future. This is where the mortgage stress test comes in. Many Canadians hear the term but aren’t entirely sure what it means or how it affects them. Let’s break it down in plain language. What Is the Mortgage Stress Test? The stress test is a rule introduced by the federal government that requires all mortgage applicants to qualify at a higher rate than the one they’ll actually pay. Currently, you must qualify at the greater of your contract rate + 2% or the benchmark qualifying rate (set by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions). For example: If your lender offers you a 5-year fixed mortgage at 5.25%, you must show you could still afford the payments at 7.25% . Even if rates don’t rise that high, the stress test ensures you won’t be overextended if they do. Why Does It Matter? The stress test protects both borrowers and lenders by: Preventing over-borrowing : It ensures you don’t take on more debt than you can realistically handle. Preparing for rate hikes : With interest rates fluctuating, it’s a safeguard against sudden increases. Strengthening financial stability : It lowers the risk of defaults, protecting the housing market as a whole. While it can sometimes feel like a barrier—reducing the amount you qualify for—it’s ultimately designed to keep you from becoming “house poor.” How Does It Impact Buyers? The stress test can significantly affect your homebuying budget. For example, without it, you might qualify for a $600,000 mortgage, but with the stress test applied, you may only qualify for $500,000. That doesn’t mean your dream of homeownership is out of reach—it just means you may need to adjust expectations or explore other strategies, such as: Increasing your down payment Paying down existing debts Considering alternative lenders who may have different qualification standards Why Work With a Mortgage Professional? Every lender applies the stress test, but not every lender views your application the same way. An independent mortgage professional can: Shop multiple lenders to find the best fit Run affordability scenarios at different rates Help you understand how much house you can truly afford—without stretching your finances too thin The Bottom Line The mortgage stress test isn’t meant to stop you from buying a home—it’s there to protect you from financial strain down the road. By understanding how it works and planning ahead, you can make smarter choices and buy with confidence. If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, refinancing, or simply want to know how the stress test affects your options, connect with us today. We’ll help you stress-test your budget and find the mortgage solution that works best for you.